Rozenberg Anastasia Gennadyevna, Junior staff scientist, Institute of the Volga River Basin Ecology of RAS (10 Komzina street, Togliatti, Russia), firstname.lastname@example.org
Kostina Natalia Viktorovna, Candidate of biological sciences, senior staff scientist, Institute of the Volga River Basin Ecology of RAS (10 Komzina street, Togliatti, Russia), email@example.com
Rozenberg Gennady Samuilovich, Doctor of biological sciences, professor, corresponding member of RAS, director, Institute of the Volga River Basin Ecology of RAS (10 Komzina street, Togliatti, Russia), firstname.lastname@example.org
Background. The scenario analysis is being used more often now for planning, evaluation and implementation of decisions relating to environment and sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to forecast changes in the forest cover of Samara region at various development ways.
Materials and methods. The research data was taken from open sources, results of opinion polls, including those conducted by the authors. The study was conducted by the method of scenario analysis using the Cobb – Douglas function of exponential type.
Results. The conducted research considered four development options of the “nature – society” system on the basis of opinion polls. There was given a forecast of forest cover changes in the framework of sustainable development by the example of Samara region.
Conclusions. The forecast of forest cover changes in Samara region until 2100 based on the synthetic model taking into account ecological and sociological analysis of human development scenarios showed that the percentage of forest cover in the worst case scenario would be reduced to 0,5 % of the region’s area, but under unaltered conditions – to 8 %. At the most appropriate scenario the forest cover would be increased to 18 %, while the “utopian” scenario would bring it back to the level of the year 1700.
1. Nemarundwe N. Future Scenarios as an Instrument for Forest Management: Manual for Training Facilitators of Future Scenarios. Bogor, Indonesia, 2003.
2. Costanza R. Futurist. 1999, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 23–28.
3. Bossel H. Earth at a Crossroads: Paths to a Sustainable Future. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press, 1998, 356 p.
4. Meadows D. H., Meadows D. L., Randers J., Behrens W. W. The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books, 1972, 205 p.
5. Rozenberg G. S., Rozenberg A. G. Vestnik Volzhskogo universiteta im. V. N. Tatishcheva [Bulletin of Tatishchev Volga University]. 2006, no. 6, p. 103.
6. Rozenberg A. G., Ryanskiy N. F., Rozenberg G. S. Vestnik Nizhnevartovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Bulletin of Nizhnevartovsk State University]. 2009, no. 1, pp. 68–86.
7. Kudinova G. E., Rozenberg A. G., Yurina V. S., Zibarev S. S., Ivanov M. N. Sovremennye issledovaniya sotsial'nykh problem [Modern research of social problems]. 2011, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 74–83.
8. Goerner S. J., Lietaer B., Ulanowicz R. E. Ecol. Economics. 2009, vol. 69, pp. 76–81.
9. Lydenberg S. The Potential Use of Sustainability Scenarios as a Supplement to Stock Price in Equity Valuation by Long-term Investors. New York: Domini Social Investments LLC, 2014, 52 p.
10. Ulanowicz R. E. The Third Window: Natural Life Beyond Newton & Darwin. West Conshohocken: Templeton Foundation Press, 2009, 196 p.
11. Moiseev N. N. Zaslon srednevekov'yu [A screen from the Middle Ages]. Moscow: Taydeks Ko, 2003, pp. 281–299.
12. De Groot R. S., Wilson M. A., Boumans R. M. J. Ecol. Econ. 2002, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 393–408.
13. De Vries B. J. M. Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth. Cambridge (USA): MIT Press, 2006, pp. 379–398.
14. Sharaev Yu. V. Teoriya ekonomicheskogo rosta [The territory of economic growth]. Moscow: GU VShE, 2006, 254 p.
15. Rozenberg G. S. Volzhskiy basseyn: na puti k ustoychivomu razvitiyu [The Volga basin: towards sustainable development]. Tolyatti: IEVB RAN; Kassandra, 2009, 477 p.